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- The roots of World War I, 1871–1914
- The impact of industrialism and imperialism
- Completing the alliance systems, 1890–1907
- The Balkan crises and the outbreak of war, 1907–14
- World War I, 1914–18
- Military stalemate and new belligerents
- Last battles and armistice
- Peacemaking, 1919–22
- The West and the Russian Civil War
- Central Europe and the Middle East
- A fragile stability, 1922–29
- Reparations, security, and the German question
- The United States, Britain, and world markets
- The origins of World War II, 1929–39
- The rise of Hitler and fall of Versailles
- British appeasement and American isolationism
- Technology, strategy, and the outbreak of war
- World War II, 1939–45
- The economic and scientific wars
- Strategy and diplomacy of the Grand Alliance
- The defeat of Nazi Germany
- The coming of the Cold War, 1945–57
- Wasteland: the world after 1945
- The Cold War in Europe
- The Cold War in the Middle East and Asia
- The pace of European integration
- Total Cold War and the diffusion of power, 1957–72
- The world after Sputnik
- Superpower relations in the 1960s
- Dependence and disintegration in the global village, 1973–87
- The decline of détente
- The “arc of crisis”
- The end of the Cold War
- The first post-Cold War crisis: war in the Persian Gulf
- The quest for a new world order, 1991–95
- Toward a new millennium
The quest for a new world order, 1991–95
In the run-up to the Persian Gulf War, Bush had summoned the United Nations to the task of building a new world order. He was seeking to place the resistance to Iraqi aggression on a high moral plane but was also responding to critics who accused him of lacking “vision.” In fact, American opinion was sharply divided on how to take advantage of the sudden, surprising victory in the Cold War. Neo-isolationists urged the United States to pare back foreign commitments, neo-nationalists wanted the country to look more to its own interests abroad, liberals hoped for a “peace dividend” that could be applied to a domestic agenda ranging from education to health care and crime, and all hoped to address the yawning deficits in the U.S. budget and trade balance. Internationalists of both parties, however, insisted that Americans would miss a historic opportunity if they turned inward after the Cold War. Twice before in the 20th century the United States had led the world to victories over tyranny only to see its plans for a democratic world order frustrated. As the only nation with the unique combination of military, economic, and ideological strengths needed to lead, the United States now had a duty to “win the peace.”
Was bold leadership in fact all that was needed to fashion a secure and free world order? Or must the post-Cold War international system, like all previous ones, evolve according to the play of power and interest among states? Would the end of the bipolar world eventuate in a unipolar one led by the UN? Or would it fragment into a multipolar system, with new sorts and sources of threats, such as ethnic and regional violence, terrorism, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to second-level states, some of them hostile to Western values?
Prospects for peace
The Middle East
At least two abiding conflicts did seem ripe for resolution in the wake of the Cold War and the Persian Gulf War. In the Middle East mutually reinforcing changes on the international, regional, and domestic fronts breathed new life into the peace process. First, the American commitment to gulf security raised U.S. prestige and influence throughout the entire region. Second, Saudi Arabia and other wealthy Arab governments cut financial support for the PLO. Third, the foremost “rejectionist” Arab states like Syria and Iraq were marginalized—the former because of the loss of its Soviet patron, the latter by military defeat. Fourth, weary Palestinians and Israelis began to look for an alternative to the ongoing strife of the intifada in the disputed territories. Sensing the opportunity born of these changes, Bush sent Secretary of State Baker to the Middle East twice in the spring of 1991 in order to revive the peace process, then joined Gorbachev on July 31 in calling for a Middle East peace conference. Other hopeful signs included Jordan’s tentative moves away from Iraq and toward a more representative government at home and the renewal of diplomatic relations with Israel by the U.S.S.R., China, and India. In June 1992, the Labour Party, led by Yitzhak Rabin, defeated the Likud in elections, bringing to power a more flexible Israeli cabinet. Bush then extended $10,000,000,000 in American loan guarantees to Israel, and Jerusalem in turn announced a moratorium on new Jewish settlements on the West Bank.
Thanks to Bush’s leadership, the conference that opened in Madrid on October 30, 1991, spawned three diplomatic tracks: Israeli–Palestinian discussions on an interim settlement; bilateral talks between Israel, on the one hand, and Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, on the other; and multilateral conferences designed to support the first two tracks. Syria’s President Assad signalled a new flexibility when he first used the word “peace” in September 1992, and he later indicated that the total return of the Golan Heights was no longer a precondition for negotiations. A crucial breakthrough was made in May 1993 as Israel began secret negotiations with the PLO that bore fruit in August when—just as the delegates were gathering for the 11th multilateral round of talks—the Israeli foreign minister, Shimon Peres, made the surprise announcement that an accord had been reached with the PLO. Secret talks held in Norway had resulted in a plan to establish Palestinian self-rule in the Gaza Strip and in Jericho. As part of the agreement ?Arafāt repudiated before the Israelis the long-standing Palestinian denunciation of Israel’s “right to exist.” The signing of a Declaration of Principles based on UN Resolutions 242 and 338, presided over by U.S. President Bill Clinton, followed on September 13. Speculation ensued as to whether ?Arafāt would survive to enforce the accord against the will of terrorist groups like ?amās. Despite continued violence, however, an implementation accord was reached on May 4, 1994, that in turn allowed the consummation of peace between Jordan and Israel on October 26. As the year ended, hopes were high that Syria would also agree to terms. Several sticky points remained between Jerusalem and Damascus, however, while the Israelis and Americans discussed whether or not U.S. peacekeeping forces should be deployed on the Golan Heights to monitor an agreement.
The end of the Cold War also promoted progress in the long-standing South African conflict. To be sure, Western and Soviet-bloc states had ritually condemned apartheid and imposed economic sanctions against the white government. So long as South Africa could point to the Communist backing received by the African National Congress (ANC) and neighbouring states like Angola and Mozambique, however, it had a certain leverage with which to resist black demands for majority rule. It was the disappearance of the Communist threat and the example of brave eastern Europeans throwing off their chains that finally allowed President F.W. de Klerk to persuade even the ardent Afrikaaners of his National Party to accept reform. So, too, did the ANC, which affirmed its readiness, in January 1990, to engage the South African government in peaceful negotiations. The following month de Klerk released the ANC leader Nelson Mandela from prison. Talks began on May 2, complicated by intramural violence among competing black factions, especially the ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) of the Zulu chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi. De Klerk pressed on, however, and in June 1991 Parliament repealed its requirement that citizens be categorized by race. The following month Bush, citing the progress made, lifted American sanctions against South Africa.
The final act began in December 1991 when de Klerk and Mandela sat down to design an interim constitutional arrangement for the transfer of power. Mandela insisted on “one man, one vote” at once, while whites, fearing retribution from an all-black government, insisted on a guaranteed voice in the new regime. The stalemate was broken in September at the expense of the IFP, which broke relations with Pretoria. De Klerk and Mandela proceeded bilaterally, and on February 12, 1993, they arrived at a formula for a transitional “government of national unity.” They eventually fixed the date for the first all-South African free elections for April 1994. Ongoing factional violence in the black townships threatened to derail the plan, but in the final weeks the IFP agreed to permit its KwaZulu territory to participate. In the voting on April 26 Mandela won a landslide victory, and he was inaugurated as president on May 10. He called on all citizens “to heal the wounds of the past,” respect “the fundamental rights of the individual,” and construct “a new order based on justice for all.” As the historic year closed, it appeared that inter- or intraracial bloodbaths and confiscations would not occur and that South Africa might truly be born anew.